BİLDİRİ DETAY

Harun YONAR, Mahmut IŞIK
INVESTIGATION OF CAUSALITY FOR STRUCTURAL BREAK TIME SERIES AND AN APPLICATION IN EMERGING MARKET AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
 
Generally, the countries are evaluated by taking into account economic classifications in global form. Emerging market and developing economies are the subcategory of the developed market and they are performed economic performance progressively increasingly. However, these economies may not perform economic stability like developed countries. In economics, causality tests give the researcher a prior evaluation of the relations predicting the future values of a time series using prior values of another time series. In particular, the cause-effect relationship between economic variables may guide the assessment of the indicators investigated. Granger (1969) causality test is preferred in causality studies of stationary series and it is used to determine the cause of the relationship between the series. The variables used in econometric approaches are generally non-stationary and the unit root test should be used if there is a structural change in the stability test. In this study, the causality relationship of economic indicators of countries for emerging market and developing economies firstly series have been performed by unit root test which takes into account structural breaks and then, they have been investigated by using Granger (1969) causality. The causality directions effected from stationary have been compared in terms of the economic indicators of the countries. Finally, the indicators described the economic structure of the countries have been determined and the Europe and Asia countries in emerging market and developing economies have been compared.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Emerging Market, Developing Economies, Granger Causality, Structural Break Time Series.



 


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